Abstract
Cardiovascular preventive strategies are guided by risk scores with unknown validity in cancer cohorts. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of 7 established cardiovascular risk scores in cancer survivors from the UK Biobank. The predictive performance of QRISK3, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2)/Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for Older Persons (SCORE-OP), Framingham Risk Score, Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF), CHARGE-AF, QStroke, and CHADS-VASc was calculated in participants with and without a history of cancer. Participants were propensity matched on age, sex, deprivation, health behaviors, family history, and metabolic conditions. Analyses were stratified into any cancer, breast, lung, prostate, brain/central nervous system, hematologic malignancies, Hodgkin lymphoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Incident cardiovascular events were tracked through health record linkage over 10 years of follow-up. The area under the receiver operating curve, balanced accuracy, and sensitivity were reported. The analysis included 31,534 cancer survivors and 126,136 covariate-matched controls. Risk score distributions were near identical in cases and controls. Participants with any cancer had a significantly higher incidence of all cardiovascular outcomes than matched controls. Performance metrics were significantly worse for all risk scores in cancer cases than in matched controls. The most notable differences were among participants with a history of hematologic malignancies who had significantly higher outcome rates and poorer risk score performance than their matched controls. The performance of risk scores for predicting stroke in participants with brain/central nervous system cancer was very poor, with predictive accuracy more than 30% lower than noncancer controls. Existing cardiovascular risk scores have significantly worse predictive accuracy in cancer survivors compared with noncancer comparators, leading to an underestimation of risk in this cohort.
Overview
- The study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of 7 established cardiovascular risk scores in cancer survivors from the UK Biobank. The predictive performance of QRISK3, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2)/Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for Older Persons (SCORE-OP), Framingham Risk Score, Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF), CHARGE-AF, QStroke, and CHADS-VASc was calculated in participants with and without a history of cancer. Participants were propensity matched on age, sex, deprivation, health behaviors, family history, and metabolic conditions. Analyses were stratified into any cancer, breast, lung, prostate, brain/central nervous system, hematologic malignancies, Hodgkin lymphoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Incident cardiovascular events were tracked through health record linkage over 10 years of follow-up. The area under the receiver operating curve, balanced accuracy, and sensitivity were reported. The analysis included 31,534 cancer survivors and 126,136 covariate-matched controls. Risk score distributions were near identical in cases and controls. Participants with any cancer had a significantly higher incidence of all cardiovascular outcomes than matched controls. Performance metrics were significantly worse for all risk scores in cancer cases than in matched controls. The most notable differences were among participants with a history of hematologic malignancies who had significantly higher outcome rates and poorer risk score performance than their matched controls. The performance of risk scores for predicting stroke in participants with brain/central nervous system cancer was very poor, with predictive accuracy more than 30% lower than noncancer controls. Existing cardiovascular risk scores have significantly worse predictive accuracy in cancer survivors compared with noncancer comparators, leading to an underestimation of risk in this cohort.
Comparative Analysis & Findings
- The study compared the predictive performance of 7 established cardiovascular risk scores in cancer survivors from the UK Biobank. The results showed that the predictive performance of all risk scores was significantly worse in cancer cases than in matched controls. The most notable differences were among participants with a history of hematologic malignancies who had significantly higher outcome rates and poorer risk score performance than their matched controls. The performance of risk scores for predicting stroke in participants with brain/central nervous system cancer was very poor, with predictive accuracy more than 30% lower than noncancer controls.
Implications and Future Directions
- The study highlights the limitations of existing cardiovascular risk scores in predicting cardiovascular outcomes in cancer survivors. The findings suggest that these risk scores may underestimate the risk of cardiovascular events in this cohort. Future research should focus on developing risk scores specifically tailored to cancer survivors, incorporating cancer-related factors and comorbidities. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of considering cancer history when assessing cardiovascular risk in cancer survivors.